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Mathematical models predict that the community-level incidence of a controlled infectious disease across a region approaches a geometric distribution. This could hold over larger regions, if new cases remain proportional to existing cases. Leprosy has been disappearing for centuries, making an excellent candidate for testing this hypothesis. Here, we show the annual new case detection rate of leprosy...
Sea lice are marine parasites affecting salmon farms, and are considered one of the most costly pests of the salmon aquaculture industry. Infestations of sea lice on farms significantly increase opportunities for the parasite to spread in the surrounding ecosystem, making control of this pest a challenging issue for salmon producers. The complexity of controlling sea lice on salmon farms requires...
Epidemiological models of the spread of pathogens in livestock populations primarily focus on direct contact between farms based on animal movement data, and in some cases, local spatial spread based on proximity between premises. The roles of other types of indirect contact among farms is rarely accounted for. In addition, data on animal movements is seldom available in the United States. However,...
To mark the centenary of the 1918 influenza pandemic, the broadcasting network BBC have put together a 75-min documentary called ‘Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic’. Central to the documentary is a nationwide citizen science experiment, during which volunteers in the United Kingdom could download and use a custom mobile phone app called BBC Pandemic, and contribute their movement and contact data for...
In many populations, the patterns of potentially infectious contacts are transients that can be described as a network with dynamic links. The relative timescales of link and contagion dynamics and the characteristics that drive their tempos can lead to important differences to the static case. Here, we propose some essential nomenclature for their analysis, and then review the relevant literature...
We will inevitably face new epidemics where the lack of long time-series data and the uncertainty about the outbreak dynamics make difficult to obtain quantitative predictions. Here we present an algorithm to qualitatively infer time-varying contact rates from short time-series data, letting us predict the start, relative magnitude and decline of epidemic outbreaks. Using real time-series data of...
Accurate forecasts could enable more informed public health decisions. Since 2013, CDC has worked with external researchers to improve influenza forecasts by coordinating seasonal challenges for the United States and the 10 Health and Human Service Regions. Forecasted targets for the 2014–15 challenge were the onset week, peak week, and peak intensity of the season and the weekly percent of outpatient...
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic zoonosis with major health and economic impact on the cattle industry. Despite extensive control measures in cattle and culling trials in wildlife, the reasons behind the expansion of areas with high incidence of bTB breakdowns in Great Britain remain unexplained. By balancing the importance of cattle movements and local transmission on the observed pattern of...
Data from a set of different studies on the infectivity and pathogenicity of Campylobacter jejuni were analyzed with a multilevel model, allowing for effects of host species (nonhuman primates and humans) and different strains of the pathogen.All challenge studies involved high doses of the pathogen, resulting in all exposed subjects to become infected. In only one study a dose response effect (increasing...
In this paper, we report the epidemic characteristics of the three co-circulating influenza viruses (i.e., A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B) in two tropical African cities—Kampala and Entebbe, Uganda—over an eight-year period (2008–2015). Using wavelet methods, we show that influenza epidemics recurred annually during the study period. In most months, two or more influenza viruses co-circulated at the same time...
Heterosexual partners often differ in age. Integrating realistic patterns of sexual mixing by age into dynamic transmission models has been challenging. The effects of these patterns on the transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STI) including Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia), the most common bacterial STI are not well understood. We describe age mixing between new heterosexual partners...
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